Help me, Sierra Nevada, you're our only hope.
As Blue Origin stumbles, Sierra Nevada is the most viable competitor to SpaceX.
SpaceX’s position in the commercial space industry is dominant - too dominant. SpaceX offers the lowest price to orbit1, has had 127 straight successful launches with Falcon 9, and is currently the only serious commercial human spaceflight provider2.
Don’t get the wrong idea: the Curious Cosmonaut is a big SpaceX fan. But we are bigger fans of broadening access to space. If SpaceX doesn’t have competition then humanity’s nascent effort to bring consciousness and life to the dead vacuum of space is at risk.
Humanity’s effort to bring life to space is at risk if SpaceX doesn’t have competition.
For years it looked like Blue Origin was the most likely candidate to give SpaceX a run for it’s money. That plan is now in jeopardy. Boeing is a mess, as it has been for years. Lockheed doesn’t seem to have any serious interest in crewed spaceflight.
What about Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC)? SNC recently spun off its space activities into a new subsidiary called Sierra Space. Sierra Space is managing the development of the long-awaited Dreamchaser Spaceplane. Many people forget but Dreamchaser has a big, fat, juicy NASA contract to launch cargo to the ISS. The first launch is likely in 2022, maybe 2023. Like the SpaceX Dragon capsule (and unlike the Northrop Grumman Antares/Cygnus ISS cargo delivery system), it appears Sierra Space is using this NASA funding to further development of a crewed version of the Dreamchaser.
SNC is following the SpaceX playbook and using NASA funding to develop a crewed space transport system.
SNC doesn’t get a lot of press. Their CEO isn’t active on social media, and they’re not regularly suing the government. But when their leadership does speaks they seem to say some exciting things:
“Alongside our partners at NASA, SNC will build a shining city in space which will be a beacon of inspiration for generations to come.” - SNC Pres. Eren Ozmen, 2020
So let’s keep an eye on SNC, cheer them on, and hope they turn into a viable competitor to SpaceX. Competition is the best way to ensure success for the effort to bring life to space.
Russia and China become less attractive human spaceflight providers to the West as the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate.