Organizations seeking to do extended on-orbit research today have two choices: the International Space Station, or the unproven (and geopolitically fraught) Tiangong Station.
That is changing: space station development is picking up. The Curious Cosmonaut counts at least four space station development projects likely to actually be built by 2030:
Lunar Gateway - already under construction, strong U.S. government support.
Gaganyaan (Indian) Space Station - India is in a space race with China and is serious about catching up.
Axiom Space Station - raised $130 million and is already under construction.
Sierra Space Station - seeking partners, testing ground prototypes, but typically only pursues projects with U.S. government funding.
There are a few more space station projects that today seem unlikely to come to fruition but, with a little luck, could actually happen:
Any sort of Russian Space Station - Russia regularly threatens to leave ISS and build their own station but lack of funding and brain drain makes this unlikely.
Bigelow Aerospace - currently in mothballs due to COVID-19 but has three modules currently operating on orbit, including one attached to the ISS.
A FAANG company decides to build a space station, basically because they can. Apple in particular has a huge cash pile and a history of pursuing unexpected projects.
Some other space station startup. For example: Orbital Assembly, Think Orbital, and Nanoracks all have great tech and great people. They (just!) need lots and lots of money.
With this in mind, here is the Curious Cosmonaut’s list of the top five space stations that will exist in 2030:
1. The International Space Station
The Classic One will still be around, probably with an Axiom module attached to it.
2. The Lunar Gateway
The New One will be up and running, trying to justify its existence to the taxpayers.
3. Tiangong Station Version 2.0
The Bad Boy will still be around, scaring the West.
4. Sierra Space LIFE Habitat
The Military One. Sierra Space will leverage its outstanding government connections and use of its Dreamchaser spaceplane to give the DoD and the U.S. Space Force what it’s always wanted: it’s own space station.
5. SpaceX Orbital Refueling Depot
The Crazy One. NASA is subsidizing the development of a SpaceX-centric on orbit refueling infrastructure. Between this project, and proven SpaceX tech like Dragon and (eventually) Starship, there’s very little stopping SpaceX from quickly slapping a space station together. Especially if a market grows or NASA shoves a few hundred million dollars their way.
Runner Up: The Indian Gaganyaan Space Station. Do not count out the Indians. This country is preparing to put astronauts into orbit and is very serious about catching up with China.